Fun with Google phone rumors

My name is Richard and I'm a Google rumor junkie. I admit it. I can't get enough of them. I've tried taking up drinking as a diversion, but it just doesn't overcome that craving for the heady elixir of Google rumor mongering. (Just how does one monger, anyway?)

The Google phone rumors are as tasty as they come. The only thing we know for sure is that it's helping drive Google's stock into the stratosphere. Is this a revolution? Is it just over-enthusiastic hype for what will turn out to be a series of search and email applications?

Here's a sampling. You decide. Then tell me. Addicted minds want to know.

The latest photographic rumors include this photo of the alleged Google phone, courtesy of HT Lounge. The site says the device is made by HTC, and that "HTC is already planning to ship 50,000 Google Phone test units out to developers by the end of the year."

The Wall Street Journal, of course, started the rumors of a new, open cell phone platform. What's a platform? The Journal says it's cell phone software that's "'open' right down to the operating system."

Then it tantalized us with a free sample rumor that Google is "in advanced talks with two top U.S. cellphone operators, Verizon Wireless and Sprint Nextel Corp., about selling handsets tailored to its new mobile-phone operating system, people familiar with the matter said."

Like most dealers, the Journal refuses to give us any more unless we pay up. Subscription? Didn't Dr. Murdoch say it was going to be free?

So we turn to other sources. Bloomberg steps up with its own sources who say "Google is in talks with Verizon and Sprint Nextel about developing mobile-phone software and services."

Software and services? What does that mean? Google Maps and Search? Bloomberg says that "Verizon Wireless spokesman Jim Gerace confirmed the companies have talked." But he won't say what they talked about. Give me more!

OK, it still looks like an OS. "An operating system would give Google another way to profit from sales of mobile phones, which outsold personal computers by more than 4-to-1 last year, according to Gartner," says Bloomberg.

But wait, there's less! PC World says that "Pundits are predicting possibilities ... from a specific phone running a new Google operating system to a suite of applications that work on a wide range of phones."

Damn. No OS. In fact, PCW quotes Ken Dulaney at Gartner saying "Building an OS is the dumbest thing [Google] could do." It doesn't have the experience.

Without an open OS, no universal apps from third parties running on all phones.

Reuters also disappoints with sources that say these talks are Google apps, not an OS. "Verizon Wireless is in active talks about putting Google applications on phones it offers, people familiar with the matter told Reuters."

So are we talking about a Google phone running on just a few cellular networks, with Verizon just taking some Google apps and trying to keep control over its handsets? Could be. 

And CNN/Money speculates that the speculation of a Verizon deal is nothing more than speculation. ”A person close to Verizon says no deal with Google is imminent. Verizon isn't commenting.”

If so, Verizon might find that missing out on the iPhone and the Google phone starts to hurt business, and eventually caves in. God willing.

Red Herring takes that Trojan Horse view, quoting an anonymous analyst. “The search king, the analyst said, has a short-term goal to make concessions to the carriers and gets its products into the market, and it has a long-term goal to pursue spectrum and invest in an open network.” That’s the 700 MHz spectrum that Google is supposed to bid on. 

On ZDNet, Eric Everson, founder of MyMobiSafe.com puts a real buzz kill on the whole idea of an open cell phone platform by noting: “While many of the emerging third-party developments will be pure and safe in nature, the poor state of security throughout the mobile industry will literally put millions at risk.” 

I’ve got to admit, he’s right. What happens when we start buying things through our cell phones? Maybe Google has some new built-in security system. I haven’t found any rumors to that effect. 

Well, let’s keep our hopes up. 

Here’s my speculation: 

However it happens, maybe a new (Linux-based?) OS will emerge and allow apps developers to go cross-platform. 

Google-branded hardware built by third parties is not likely to match the slick design of the iPhone, but it may give us cheaper services and more apps. We’ll all be happy until hackers start breaking in. I don’t know what Google will do about security.

People will be disappointed over what Verizon announces. It’s going to resist this trend as much as possible. It will start off by adopting some of the Google apps, and maybe jump further in later. 

Google will get some smaller carriers to buy in to its platform, which means an OS. Independent apps will catch on. Google will start wrenching cell carriers’ control from them, but it may take years. They’ll fight it by whining to the FCC first. 

Remember, you heard it here first. Unless I’m wrong. Then you didn’t hear a thing.